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Suavizamiento Exponencial Simple

Esta t�cnica proporciona un modo sencillo de pronosticar con pocos datos debido a que su filosof�a dar m�s importancia a los datos m�s recientes que a los m�s antiguos. Se recomienda su uso para tendencias de demanda estables. Este t�cnica usa como datos: el pron�stico del mes anterior, su demanda real y un factor de suavizamiento del error (?, que puede fluctuar entre 0.1 y 0.9).

Este factor de suavizamiento hace que los datos antiguos pierdan ponderaci�n r�pidamente. Entre mayor sea el factor, el suavizamiento ser� menor y los datos antiguos pierden importancia r�pidamente, siendo lo contrario con ? menor.

Sea
Dt�� �= Demanda hist�rica para el periodo t.
Pt�� �= Pron�stico para el periodo t.
?�� � = Factor de suavizamiento del error.

Entonces
Pt+1 �� �= Pt + ? [Dt-Pt]

�

Perfíl de la información

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Memoria usada

10923160

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